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News

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EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Dismal U.S. Durable Goods Orders

- U.S. Durable Goods Orders to Contract for Third Straight Month.

- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts to Expand for Fifth Time in 2014.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Another 0.6% contract in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may generate a more meaningful rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens the growth and inflation outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Durable Goods Orders

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

The threat of a slower recovery may further delay the Fed’s normalization cycle as Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), and the dollar may face a larger correction over the near-term should interest rate expectations falter.

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Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Sticky inflation paired with subdued wage growth may sap demand for large-ticket items, and a dismal durable goods report may drag on the greenback as it dampens the prospects for a stronger recovery.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Nevertheless, the ongoing improvement in consumer confidence may generate a better-than-expected print, and a rebound in demand for U.S. Durable Goods may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar as the Fed is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: Orders Contract 0.6% or Greater

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Improve

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will watch the November high (1.2599) as EUR/USD holds above the monthly low (1.2356).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2610 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2620 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2300 pivot

Read More:

Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

Gold Rebound Vulnerable Sub $1207- Weekly Opening Range in Focus

Impact that the U.S. Durable Goods report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

September 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Dismal U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Demand for U.S. Durable Goods slipped another 1.3% in September following the record 18.3% contraction the month prior. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy future business investments, also fell 1.7% during the same period. The persistent weakness in demand for large-ticket items may further dampen the outlook for global growthamid the weakening outlook for Europe and China. The greenback struggled to hold its ground following the worse-than-expected print, with EUR/USD climbing above the 1.2750 handle, but there was limited follow-through behind the market reaction as the pair closed at 1.2734.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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EUR Short Covering Elusive as More Talk of QE Inspires Bears

Talking Points:

- EURUSD can’t climb back into channel from Nov 7 low.

- EURGBP in lower half of triangle sub-0.7900.

- See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

Fundamental pressures are preventing key technical levels from being achieved by Euro bulls. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio’s latest remarks indicating that a sovereign QE program could be initiated in Q1’15 add another prominent voter to President Draghi’s dovish camp, whose marching beat is ‘the ECB balance sheet will expand to early-2012.’

Considering that the ECB’s balance sheet is roughly €1 trillion short today of its early-2012 levels, market participants (those that have stuck around as illiquid holiday trading conditions set in) have determined that this is a strong enough signal to keep a Euro short covering rally at bay.

Whereas EURAUD is running higher on the back of a weaker Australian Dollar, the other major EUR-based pairs – EURGBP, EURJPY, and EURUSD – aren’t offering as promising of a technical picture. See the above video for technical considerations..

Read more: USDOLLAR Yet to Reach 11370 Target; AUD/USD Breaches Triangle Support

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen May See Recovery as Year-End Capital Flows Start to Emerge
  • British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP Revision to Inform BOE Rate Hike Outlook
  • US Dollar May Rise on Fed Tightening Bets if News-Flow Proves Supportive

Seasonal factors may increasingly factor into price action as the on-coming Thanksgiving holiday in the US unofficially marks the beginning of the market-wide liquidity drain leading into the turn of the calendar year. This may herald a period of profit-taking on some of the stand-out trends of 2014 as investors move to secure year-end performance numbers. That may bode ill for sentiment-geared assets, with the Japanese Yen rising amid carry trade liquidation while high-yielding FX (such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars) faces selling pressure.

A revised set of third-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations point to confirmation of earlier estimates showing output growth slowed for the first time in nearly two years, with the year-on-year growth rate ticking down to 3 percent from the 3.2 percent recorded in the second quarter. A downward revision may weigh on the British Pound as traders push out BOE rate hike expectations further into the future. Alternatively, an upgrade may fuel bets on sooner tightening and lift the currency.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to a diverse medley of US economic data releases. Durable Goods Orders figures, the weekly Jobless Claims report, Personal Income and Spending statistics as well as Pending and New Home Sales numbers are all due to cross the wires. US news-flow has cautiously improved relative to expectations over the past week (according to data from Citigroup). If this proves to foreshadow upside surprises on some of the day’s outcomes, the US Dollar may secure the fuel for another push higher amid firming Fed policy bets.

Currency markets were decidedly quiet in overnight trade, with most of the majors oscillating in narrow ranges against the greenback. The Yen narrowly outperformed, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a modest decline on Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index, pointing to support from haven-seeking flows as the catalyst behind the Yen’s advance. The correlation between the equities benchmark and USDJPY is now 0.96 on rolling 20-day studies.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Dollar and Yields Slide Despite Improved US Data

Talking Points:

  • Dollar and Yields Slide Despite Improved US Data
  • Euro Steady Despite OECD’s Labeling Region a Global Threat
  • Yen Crosses Underpricing Volatility Risk

Dollar and Yields Slide Despite Improved US Data

Though the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) marked a fresh five-year high on an intraday basis, the benchmark marked little progress at the end of the day. In fact, the Greenback lost ground against most of its major counterparts this past session – with AUDUSD and NZDUSD doing their part to offset more moderate performances. This currency performance comes hand-in-hand with a drop from 10-year Treasury yields as well as diminished rate forecasts measured in Fed Fund and Eurodollar futures. Therefore, moderated rate forecasts seem to have taken the wheel this past session. That diminished view came amid a swell of economic data.

Among the economic listings this past session, the most distinctly ‘dovish’ release was the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey for November. Against a consensus forecast for a seven-year high, the optimism gauge unexpectedly dropped at its fastest pace in 13 months. Yet, despite this decline, the general trend is still firmly rising. The other high-profile update of the session was the second reading – the first revision – of the US 3Q GDP report. Here, the economy was unexpectedly growing at a faster 3.9 percent clip with a notable boost to personal consumption. On net, this looks like a modest tempering of the hawkish lean in rate expectations, but only a ‘modest’ one.

Small adjustments in policy forecasts yield small movements from the Dollar. To leverage a bigger move from this currency backed by a very disparate view on monetary policy to the likes of the ECB (Euro), BoJ (Yen) and PBoC (Yuan); a substantive change from more important data could prove far more motivating. In the forthcoming session, the docket crams three days’ worth of data into a single session because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Amid the flood, the personal income and spending data for October is an important economic update. However, for monetary policy influence, the PCE update – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – will carry the most influence.

Euro Steady Despite OECD’s Labeling Region a Global Threat

Technically, the Euro gained ground against all of its major counterparts Tuesday. Yet, that performance did little to turn the tables on long-standing suffering for the single currency. Nor does the fundamental basis for the move offer encouragement for follow through. For scheduled event risk, Germany’s updated GDP statistics offered greater detail into the contents of its economic performance. Encouraging turns for private consumption and exports certainly helps to balance Europe’s largest ship. On the other hand, it does little to compensate from the Bundesbank’s financial stability report warning about excessive risk taking in the region or the OECD labeling the Eurozone a risk to the global economy – while also suggesting more stimulus. The market wants to know if the ECB will seek for QE. Data will be judged on that scale.

Yen Crosses Underpricing Volatility Risk

With the US capital markets soon to go offline for the shortened week, the assumption turns to a seasonal moderation in sentiment swings and market volatility for the global financial system. USDJPY and other yen crosses are certainly motivated by heavy changes in risk bearing due to their carry trade appeal over the past decades; so extending this relationship seems fair game. However, the FX market’s focus on monetary policy has proven a more effective motivator and separate from the normal ebb and flow of confidence. That said, one-week implied volatility for USDJPY dropping by nearly a third from less than two weeks ago seems an underappreciated risk.

New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ Doesn’t Need to Move Until 2016

Just four months ago, the RBNZ hiked rates for a fourth consecutive meeting. No other major central bank was even close to contemplating its first move. How quickly things change. Now, the market is growing increasingly skeptical that the central bank will be able to hike again in the foreseeable future. Feeding this dovish view, the RBNZ’s own survey of two-year inflation expectations dropped to a near-15 year low. Meanwhile, a NZIER quarterly forecasts projected the central bank will not have to up interest rates until 2016.

British Pound Apathetic to Carney’s Belief Next BoE Move Will be Hike

Economic and financial conditions have softened in the UK – but apparently not enough to put the BoE off their path towards its first rate hike. Speaking with some of his fellow MPC members at a Treasury Select Committee hearing, Governor Mark Carney made clear the central bank’s next move would be a hike rather an easing step. That doesn’t necessarily leverage an earlier time for the first move, but it does curb some more of the aggressively dovish views. Short Sterling futures are still pricing the most dovish December 2015 forecast in 18 months.

Emerging Markets Suffer Equities and Ruble Drop, FX Balanced Moderately Bullish

The FX rankings amongst the Emerging Market set were generally bullish. However, the progress marked was modest. Furthermore, the group’s capital markets were offering a less encouraging view with the MSCI ETF down another 0.6 percent to further retrace Friday’s gains. For stand out performance, the Ruble’s first drop in six trading days was also the sharpest in three weeks.

Gold Pushes Deeper into Breakout Territory but Motivation Unreliable

On a 20-day (1 trading month) basis, the average daily range for gold is just coming off its most active pace for the year. However, on a shorter, weekly time frame; the activity levels are dropping fast. The impending liquidity drain from the US session with the holiday can very well disrupt this market. Yet, given the lingering activity for the Dollar and general FX markets focused on monetary policy, it is worth being cautious.

**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

0:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (3Q)

-1.90%

-1.20%

Has been contracting this year

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (NOV)

110.9

Has been trending lower this year

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (NOV)

47.5

47.4

The current value is lower than the value from the beginning of the year

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Indext (MoM) (OCT)

-0.50%

0.30%

Import prices YOY have been contracting this year

7:00

EUR

Germany Import Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-1.50%

-1.60%

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (OCT)

1.41

The Current value is lower than the value from the beginning of the year

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q P)

3.00%

3.00%

GDP has been growing at a positive pace this year. Despite having GDP growth that exceeds that of other developed countries, inflation still remains below BOE’s inflation target of 2%. After the BOE released its inflation report, the BOE seemed more dovish. However, any strong increase in GDP may weigh on monetary policy decisions.

9:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.70%

0.70%

12:00

USD

MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 21)

4.90%

It is a volatile measure but can be thought of as the barometer of future housing demand

13:30

USD

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (OCT)

0.50%

0.30%

Can help with measuring the consumption strength of the economy. With lower oil prices and a stronger labor market, consumption is expected to rebound this holiday season

13:30

USD

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (OCT)

1.00%

-1.60%

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (OCT)

-0.60%

-1.10%

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (OCT)

0.30%

-0.20%

13:30

USD

Personal Income (OCT)

0.40%

0.20%

Has been positive in all months except January 2014

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 22)

288K

291K

Both of these measures have been declining; thus showing stronger labor market

13:30

USD

Continuing Claims (NOV 12)

2348K

2330K

13:30

USD

PCE Deflator (MoM) (OCT)

0.00%

0.10%

It is the Fed’s most preferred measure of inflation. It has been rising this year.

13:30

USD

PCE Deflator (YoY) (OCT)

1.40%

1.40%

13:30

USD

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (OCT)

0.20%

0.10%

13:30

USD

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (OCT)

1.50%

1.50%

14:45

USD

Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV)

63

66.2

Measure has been showing a strengthening US economy

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT)

4.00%

1.00%

The change in home sales has been increasing since September after a contraction this year

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

1.00%

0.30%

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (OCT)

-642M

-1350M

The trade balance has been trending lower this year. It might be due to a strong Kiwi and an economically weakening China which is New Zealand’s largest trade partner.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

v

— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Talking Points

The crude oil benchmarksextended their recent declines on Tuesday with WTI plunging by over 2 percent for the session. Newswires tied the drop to a lack of action by OPEC members at a gathering ahead of the more significant pow-wow set to take place later in the week. The plunge in crude prices over recent months has bolstered speculation that producers may respond with supply cuts. Yet further inaction could leave ample supply expectations to persist, which could in turn keep pressure on the commodity.

The upcoming DOE’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report offers an additional source of event risk for WTI. With total US crude production resting near multi-decade highs – it would likely take an overwhelmingly bullish report to erode some of the negative sentiment facing crude.

Also in energy space; natural gas witnessed an astounding rebound of more than 6 percent with media sources citing expectations for another blast of US cold weather as a likely catalyst. Yet in the absence of a meaningful shift in the supply story there is some doubt over the prospect of continued gains for the commodity.

Meanwhile the precious metals saw modest gains in recent trade with another lackluster session for their pricing currency the USD. Some hesitation from the US Dollar bulls may be due to thin trading conditions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Yet the potential for a pullback for the greenback is questionable. Especially given the prospect of another round of strong US economic prints over the session ahead, which include Durable Goods Orders readings, and PCE figures. Without a weaker greenback a more sustained advance for gold and silver is questionable.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Due to the extent of US data due over the session ahead the usual image has not been included today. Please refer to the DailyFX Economic Calendar for the information.

Market Movements (Tue 25 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude remains capped below the 77.00 barrier with indications of a downtrend persisting (descending trendline, 20 SMA). This leaves the downside risks centered on the late September 2010 low at 72.70. A daily close above 77.00 would be required to warn of a base for the commodity.

Crude Oil: Retests and Respects Critical 77.00 Barrier

Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold remains at a crossroads as trend indicators warn of building upside momentum (20 SMA and ROC). Yet it is still capped below key resistance at 1,208 (also the 61.8% Fib.). This leaves a clearer setup desired to offer a more concrete technical bias.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Trend Indicators Begin To Point Higher

Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver has cleared several technical barriers; the 20 SMA, descending trendline, and 50% Fib. Alongside a positive trend signal from the Rate of Change indicator the odds are being stacked in favor of a further gains for the precious metal. A leap over former support-turned-resistance at 16.70 would put the focus on the 17.70 ceiling.

Silver: Sentiment Shifts As Key Barriers Cleared

Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has continued its choppy impulsive swings between trendline resistance and support at 2.96. Caution is suggested when adopting fresh positioning given the commodity’s tendency towards volatility over recent months. Further, trend indicators have proven prone to rapidly changing direction, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders.

Copper: Choppiness Suggests Caution Required

Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium is struggling to sustain its recent gains at the 38.2% Fib. This has left a pair of Dojis in its path. However, the candlestick formations are not considered key reversal patterns. Alongside signs of an emerging uptrend a pullback is questionable.

Palladium: Struggles Sub The 38.2% Fib.

Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to struggle to lift-off from the 1,187 floor despite a Bullish Engulfing pattern lying in its wake. This the bears are still unprepared to relinquish their grip on the metal and may continue to pull it towards its recent lows.

Platinum: Bears Pull Prices Towards Recent Lows

Crude Near Key Support as OPEC Meeting, US Inventories Data Loom

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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GBP/USD Topside Targets Favored as RSI Breaks Out of Bearish Momentum

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Poised for Larger Rebound as RSI Breaks Out, BoE Sticks to Normalization Cycle.

- AUD/USD Struggles to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum as RBA Continues to Utilize Verbal Intervention.

- USDOLLAR Hits Fresh Monthly High on Upbeat 3Q GDP- PCE Inflation in Focus.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD looks poised for a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the near-term bearish formation, while the Bank of England (BoE) remains on course to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015; key topside region of interest comes around 1.5890 to 1.5900, former support.
  • The preliminary 3Q U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may have a limited market reaction as the growth rate is expected to show a 0.7% rate of growth.
  • Nevertheless, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has been net-long GBP/USD since October 28, with the ratio currently standing at +1.48.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

  • AUD/USD may continue to mark fresh lows as it struggles to retain the bullish RSI momentum, while Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Philip Lowe continues to implement verbal intervention on the higher-yielding currency.
  • Despite the long-term bearish outlook for AUD/USD, need a close below 0.8510 (50% expansion) to 0.8530 (50% expansion) to favor a further decline.
  • Next downside region of interest comes in around 0.8380 (161.8% expansion) to 0.8430 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

Gold Rebound Vulnerable Sub $1207- Weekly Opening Range in Focus

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

GBP/USD Topside Targets Favored as RSI Breaks Out of Bearish MomentumUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index struggles to retain the bullish market reaction following the unexpected upward revision in the 3Q GDP report; may see month-end flows coming early as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.
  • Even though the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, is expected to hold steady at an annualized 1.4%, any divergence from market expectations may dictate USDOLLAR price action going into December.
  • Continued failed attempts to close above 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion raises the risk of seeing a move back towards former resistance around 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums