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Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Traders To Keep One Eye On Escalating Ukrainian Turmoil
  • Gold Weighed On By A Stronger Greenback Despite Absence of Major Data
  • Palladium Targeting 1,000 After Leaping Over The 900 an Ounce Hurdle

US Dollar strength has weighed on gold in Asian trading today. The greenback bulls have returned despite a lack of major supportive news flow from the US overnight given the Labor Day holiday. The trading lull on Monday may have proven to be the calm before the storm as US traders return ahead of a busy week for economic events.

Over the session ahead US ISM Manufacturing figures headline the docket. Yet the leading indicator is on the periphery for Fed policy makers with their core focus remaining on the labor market. This suggests the impact on policy expectations and thus the US Dollar could prove limited. Nonetheless, the potential for further greenback strength should not be discounted given its strong performance today despite a lack of data flow from the region.

Tensions in Eastern Europe are also likely to remain on the radar for commodity traders. Yet the latest flare-up has proven insufficient to dramatically bolster safe-haven demand for gold and silver. At this stage it appears only a significant escalation and greater international response could generate significant gains for the alternative assets.

Mounting speculation over sanctions on Russian energy exports may offer the Brent benchmark some short-term support. Additionally, as the world’s largest producer of palladium the precious metal could be afforded some further gains. However, traders should be mindful that such fear-driven positioning may be quickly unwound if supply disruption concerns are not realized.

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude is at a critical juncture as the commodity threatens to clear the 23.6% Fib and descending trendline on the daily. A break through the nearby barrier would be required to mark a small base and threaten a more sustained recovery for the commodity. However, signs of hesitation from the bulls are made evident by a Doji candlestick. If a more definitive reversal signal emerges it would be seen as an opportunity to enter new short positions.

Crude Oil: Make-Or-Break Moment For WTI

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold’s recovery appears to have lost momentum as denoted by a pair of Dojis on the daily. Yet buying interest at the 1,280 floor and a low ATR reading suggests the potential for the commodity to remain elevated.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Bulls Lose Steam Above 1,280 Floor

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The tug-of-war between the silver bulls and bears sub 19.50 continues. A parade of Doji formations suggests indecision from traders and does little to confirm a clear directional bias for the precious metal. A daily close above the nearby barrier would suggest a small base and open the potential for a greater recovery.

Silver: Dojis Denote Indecision From Traders Near 19.50 Barrier

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A sharp correction for Copper has yielded a Bearish Engulfing formation that may warn of further weakness. This could set the commodity up for a retest of its recent lows near the 3.08 floor. However, a clean run towards the target may prove difficult given the commodity’s recent tendency to whipsaw in intraday trade.

Copper: Cautiously Eyeing Recent Lows Following Bearish Reversal Signal

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium has cracked the 900 target offered in recent commodities reports. With the core uptrend intact the upside break opens the next psychologically-significant 1,000 handle. While a Doji suggests some hesitation from the bears, a void of classic reversal patterns casts some doubt on the possibility of a correction.

Palladium: Smashes Through 900 Target With Core Uptrend In Force

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues its struggle to clear the 1,424 hurdle. An ensemble of Dojis suggests hesitation from the bulls to break through the nearby ceiling. Against the backdrop of a core downtrend this leaves shorts preferred. A climb over the descending trendline would be required to warn of a base and the possibility of a sustained recovery.

Platinum: Sellers Reemerge At 1,424 Ceiling

Gold Slides As US Dollar Bulls Return Following Holiday Lull

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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US Dollar Looks to ISM Manufacturing Data to Fuel Continued Gains

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Extend Advance if ISM Manufacturing Data Tops Forecasts
  • Australian Dollar Ignores RBA Announcement with Fed Policy Bets in Focus
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to US news-flow, where the spotlight will fall on Augusts’ ISM Manufacturing print. The index is expected to inch downward to 57.0 from a three-year high of 57.1 recorded in the prior month, implying the pace of factory-sector activity growth narrowly slowed.

US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. This suggests that analysts are underestimating the vigor of recovery in the world’s largest economy and opening the door for an upside surprise.

Such an outcome is likely to fuel speculation that the time gap between the end of the Fed’s “QE3” asset purchases and the first subsequent interest rate hike will be relatively short, pushing the US Dollar higher against its top counterparts after the benchmark unit hit a 7-month high against its key counterparts. Indeed, the greenback outperformed in overnight trade as US bond yields soared in anticipation of this week’s high-profile data releases.

The Australian Dollar was little-changed after the RBAmonetary policy announcementregistered in line with the status quo. Governor Glenn Stevens and company repeated the now-familiar argument that “the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates” for the time being. The Aussie fell earlier in the session as the aforementioned jump in US yields punished rates-sensitive currencies at both ends of the return spectrum. In fact, the Japanese Yen proved weakest on the session on the back of a widening US-Japan rates gap.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Australian Dollar Confronts an RBA Decision with Heavy Speculation

Talking Points:

  • Dollar Traders Look Ahead to a Rebound in Liquidity and Pick Up in Data
  • Euro Economic Health Fades Further, Investors More Expectant of ECB
  • Australian Dollar Confronts an RBA Decision with Heavy Speculation

Dollar Traders Look Ahead to a Rebound in Liquidity and Pick Up in Data

As far as holiday trading conditions go, Monday’s turnover was exceptionally light for the majors – as expected. Yet, despite the anticipated drain, a number of the dollar-based pairs marked surprisingly aggressive moves through the lull. Both USDJPY and USDCHF gapped in the dollar’s favor to start the week, while GBPUSD secured a tentative turn on a remarkably consistent 7-week bear trend. Bullish or bearish, the greenback’s trend will develop through what comes next as liquidity and volatility fill out. Aside from fundamentals in the form of themes (like interest rate speculation) and event risk, traders should keep a close eye on ‘market conditions’. A historical trend in fading volume for the broader financial system has materially changed the camber of the markets. However, misgivings of stability and stimulus-supported gains have grown materially in recent months. If the natural ebb and flow in volatility associated to the seasonal change from the ‘Summer Lull’ stirs the deeper wells of activity; both trends and momentum could develop.

While awaiting the change in deeper currents of participation, dollar traders will have more active drivers to concern themselves with in the upcoming session. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has run a remarkably consistent, seven consecutive week rally. That is second only to run through March 2013 – a move that covered far more ground and was driven by the first signs of a shift from a dovish Fed forecast (QE3) to a more neutral standing (the ‘Taper’). Though the policy conversation has progressed since then, the next step towards pricing in the first rate hike is still inconsistent – something Treasury yields and other rate products reflect. The upcoming ISM manufacturing and IBD economic sentiment survey may help shape these forecasts, but many will likely wait until Friday NFPs unless provoked.

Euro Economic Health Fades Further, Investors More Expectant of ECB

There was a wealth of surprisingly revealing fundamental developments for Euro traders through Monday’s session. While most were likely marking the initial Italian and final Eurozone and German manufacturing PMI figures (all disappointing), the revision to the Germany 2Q GDP figures and a private bond sale by Spain were significantly more remarkable. Though Germany’s growth update was a revision, it was issued with important details. Among those particulars, we learned that private consumption was weaker than expected (0.1 percent), capital investment plunged (2.3 percent) and construction collapsed the mostin 6 years (4.2 percent). These are the types of domestic avenues that can keep the economy trending lower. Meanwhile, Spain took advantage of the exceptionally low market rates the Eurozone has enjoyed as investors chase yield by issuing its first 50-year bond – for an incredible 4 percent coupon. This is yet another symbol of extreme complacency.

Australian Dollar Confronts an RBA Decision with Heavy Speculation

The RBA rate decision due this morning is the first of five major central bank policy meetings this week. And, it also happens to carry some of the most market-moving potential. The impact of these events – and any event risk – is not in what the outcome is, but rather what is realized relative to what the markets had expected. No change is expected from the Australian central bank, but tone is very important to the currency’s trend. Slowly gaining traction over the past months as policymakers backed off of rate cut language, the currency was more recently knocked off pace by worryingly dovish commentary. If the group reinforces that language, the AUD could suffer a more concerted drop.

British Pound Running Through a Data Ringer

While the Pound managed gains against most counterparts to start the week, few carried the same level of market interest as GBPUSD which technically broke a bearish channel that has guided the pair lower since it set a multi-year peak on July 15. Under more conducive (more liquid) conditions, this push could have picked up on the buoyancy of shorter gilt yields and swaps and ran a more assertive rebound. Alas, bulls will have to rely on the docket ahead which includes a construction activity (housing-related) PMI and retail inflation reading from the BRC.

Swiss Franc: How Much Weight to 2Q GDP Versus SNB Vow?

As the Euro trends lower, EURCHF is noticeably trending towards the 1.2000-level which the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to uphold. Monday, central bank President Thomas Jordan reiterated the group’s commitment to prevent the exchange rate from slipping the level with threats of ‘unlimited’ FX operations. We are currently less than 75 pips away from that self-imposed floor and the ECB is threatening to add weight to this pair. Can the Swiss 2Q GDP reading due today avert this pressure? Unlikely. Keep an eye on EURCHF.

Emerging Markets: Ruble Hits Fresh Record Lows as Ukraine Situation Boils

Emerging market currencies were mixed to start the week with momentum notably dampened by the absence of North American speculative liquidity. That said, there were still some standouts for activity. Once again the Russian Ruble was in the headlines slipping to a record low against the USD (down 0.5 percent to 37.29) as Ukraine rhetoric intensified alongside military engagements within the country.

Gold Volume Shrinks to Thinnest Trading in Four-Years

Between staid price action amongst the financial market benchmarks and a steady US dollar, there was little to motivate gold to break recent congestion. However, activity levels are growing extreme. We have been watching speculative positioning in futures and FX markets as well as open interest, but volume itself is starting to show an extraordinary drain. Last week, volume in gold futures dropped to their lowest levels of non-holiday trade since August 2010. Like the broader financial markets, these are circumstances that look ‘too quiet’.

**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

01:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)

-2.4%

Falling Prices since March 2014

01:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

0.9%

1.0%

Increasing since March 2014

01:30

AUD

Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q)

-14.0B

-5.7B

Aussie current account balance has significantly contracted in the last 3 quarterly reports

01:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (2Q)

-0.70

1.40

Exports as % of GDP expected to fall for first time since Q1 2012

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL)

-1.9%

-5.0%

More number of buildings have been approved each month since June 2013

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL)

7.8%

16.0%

04:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 2)

2.5%

2.5%

The RBA is expected to maintain a status-quo monetary policy after the central bank decided a ‘period of stability’ in rates going forward was the best direction for the bank

05:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)

1.6%

2.0%

The Swizz economy remains unaffected by the Eurozone crisis and has expanded strongly since Q4 of 2009

05:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.5%

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (AUG)

61.50

62.40

UK construction sentiment has remained strong since mid-2013

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.1%

0.1%

PPI figures in the Eurozone have consistently contracted since August last year

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-1.1%

-0.8%

13:30

CAD

RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

54.30

Strong Manufacturing reports may further boost BOC expectations after a strong GDP report last week

13:45

USD

Markit US Manufacturing PMI (AUG F)

58.00

58.00

Manufacturing sentiment has been showing a strong uptrend in the United States this year, and is likely to add bets to hawkish Fed policy

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing (AUG)

56.80

57.10

14:00

USD

ISM Prices Paid (AUG)

58.80

59.50

14:00

USD

Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL)

1.0%

-1.8%

Construction spending hasn’t seen any major changes recently, remaining with the -2% and 2% mark since June 2012

14:00

USD

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP)

45.50

44.50

Economic optimism is expected to continue remaining negative

22:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

0.0%

16.0%

Values of buildings saw a huge jump in Q1 of this year

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

-2.0%

-1.9%

Retail prices have been declining since mid-2013, allowing the BOE to hold on rate hikes

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG)

49.30

The Services Sector has been contracting since March this year

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

v

— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Traders To Keep One Eye On Escalating Ukrainian Turmoil
  • Gold In Tug-Of-War As Geopolitical Tensions Offset A Stronger Greenback
  • Palladium Targeting 1,000 After Leaping Over The $900 an Ounce Hurdle

Crude oil’s recovery appears to have stalled in Asian trading today with the commodity lacking fundamental cues. Over the week ahead, Russian supply disruption fears may remain on the radar for traders following reports of escalating Ukrainina tensions. Speculation over the imposition of sanctions targeting the nation’s energy exports could offer Brent a source of support in the short-term. However, the commodity may need to find a more compelling reason to recover in the longer-term. This is given the probability that Western Europe will willingly cut off its largest energy supplier is likely low.

Meanwhile, gold and silver remain in a tug-of-war. Heightened geopolitical tensions continue to offer the alternative assets a source of support. Yet the resilience of the US Dollar has likely weighed on the precious metals. These opposing forces could keep the commodities in line for a period of consolidation.

Meanwhile, copper has brushed aside a deterioration in Chinese PMI figures today to trade marginally higher. The official and HSBC readings for August slipped versus their July prints. The indices remain in expansionary territory. However, a further slide towards contractionary readings could raise concerns over the country’s appetite for commodities. This in turn could keep copper prices suppressed.

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

No major US data is scheduled to be released given the US labor day holiday.

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude is at a critical juncture as the commodity threatens to clear the 23.6% Fib and descending trendline on the daily. A break through the nearby barrier would be required to mark a small base and threaten a more sustained recovery for the commodity.

Crude Oil: Make-Or-Break Moment For WTI

Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold’s recovery appears to have lost momentum. Yet buying interest at the 1,280 floor and a low ATR reading suggests the potential for the commodity to remain elevated.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Nearby Support May Keep Gold Elevated

Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The tug-of-war between the silver bulls and bears sub 19.50 continues. A parade of Doji formations suggests indecision from traders and does little to confirm a clear directional bias for the precious metal. A daily close above the nearby barrier would suggest a small base and open the potential for a greater recovery.

Silver: Dojis Denote Indecision From Traders Near 19.50 Barrier

Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A sharp correction for Copper has yielded a Bearish Engulfing formation that may warn of further weakness. This could set the commodity up for a retest of its recent lows near the 3.08 floor. However, a clean run towards the target may prove difficult given the commodity’s recent tendency to whipsaw in intraday trade.

Copper: Cautiously Eyeing Recent Lows Following Bearish Reversal Signal

Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium has cracked the 900 target offered in recent commodities reports. With the core uptrend intact the upside break opens the next psychologically-significant 1,000 handle. It is also worth noting that a void of bearish candlestick signals casts some doubt on the potential for a correction.

Palladium: Smashes Through 900 Target With Core Uptrend In Force

Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum’s recovery has faltered at the 1,424 ceiling, leaving a narrow trading band in play. Within the context of a broader downtrend, selling into corrective rallies is preferred.

Platinum: Sellers Reemerge At 1,424 Ceiling

Gold and Silver Tug-Of-War Continues, Palladium Cracks $900 Hurdle

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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Euro Remains Vulnerable After Sinking to One-Year Low vs. US Dollar

Talking Points:

  • New Zealand Dollar Gains as Terms of Trade Data Boost RBNZ Policy Bets
  • Euro May Continue Lower if German GDP, EZ PMI Revisions Disappoint
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed an unexpectedly upbeat Terms of Trade report. The ratio of export vs. import prices rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter, topping bets calling for a 3.5 percent decline. The improvement in the island nation’s external position appeared to bolster RBNZ monetary policy bets, with the Kiwi rising alongside New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield.

Looking ahead, a busy European data docket is headlined by the final revisions of second-quarter German GDP data and Augusts’ Eurozone Manufacturing PMI print. The former release is expected to confirm that output in the Euro area’s top economy shrank 0.2 percent in the three months through June, marking the first contraction in over a year. The latter is seen matching preliminary estimates showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity in the currency bloc grew at the slowest pace in 13 months.

Eurozone economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year. Indeed, data from Citigroup suggests realized outcomes are underperforming economists’ bets by the widest margin since June 2013 as of last week. That suggests analysts continue to underestimate the degree of economic slowdown in the region, opening the door for additional downside surprises. Disappointing results on today’s releases may help stoke speculation about a forthcoming expansion of ECB stimulus at this week’s policy meeting, sending the Euro lower. We remain short EURUSD.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Euro Bears Shouldn’t Expect QE from ECB This Week

Euro Bears Shouldn’t Expect QE from ECB This Week

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

- ECB President Draghi’s commentary at Jackson Hole set the tone for a weaker Euro all week.

- Traders expecting action on Thursday might find opportunities in the EURUSD downtrend or EURJPY inverse H&S.

- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.

The Euro was the worst performing major currency last week, extending its losing streak against the US Dollar to seven consecutive weeks. EURUSD’s -0.84% drop last week sunk it to $1.3131, its lowest exchange rate since September 6, 2013. In part. The US Dollar’s own stretch of strong data is helping keep it afloat; conversely, there is a great deal of negativity currently encircling the Euro.

The change in European Central Bank Mario Draghi’s tone has been significant since the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Instead of ascribing the Euro-Zone’s low growth, low inflation, and high unemployment issues to ‘transitory’ factors, the head of the ECB among, other policymakers, is now accepting that the current weak economic environment is more or less a permanent condition.

Recent economic data has been so poor that another dip into recession across the Euro-Zone is possible – the third recession since the start of the global financial crises beginning in 2007. The Citi Economic Surprise Index fell to -45.1 on Friday, eclipsing the July low and setting a new yearly low for the year. The Euro’s problems are clearly related to economic and geopolitical concerns, as the liquidity conditions in the Euro-Zone are more than plentiful (EONIA fell at low as -0.04% on Thursday, the first time it has even been negative).

Even as Euro-Zone CPI hits its lowest levels since October 2009 (at +0.3% y/y), the aforementioned factors may not be enough to push the ECB into acting this week – at least in the unconventional, QE-inspired manner that market participants may be hoping for. The preferred timeframe to implement new measures is after October, when the ECB finishes collecting and analyzing banks’ balance sheets for the stress tests (AQR).

If it’s too soon for outright QE and meaningless to go forward with another rate cut given regional liquidity conditions, then perhaps the ABS purchase front will pique interest. Even then, substantive action may be falling short of expectations. The most significant steps taken might be downgraded inflation expectations; but that too is only dovish rhetoric at best. With non-commercials/speculators, at 150.7 net-short contracts, the most stretched since July 24, 2012 (155.1K contracts), any disappointment along the easing front could be enough to stoke a short-covering rally by the 18-member currency. –CV

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