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AUDJPY Outside Reversal Day- Scalps Favor Buying Dips Above 96.38

Talking Points

AUD/JPY Daily

AUDJPY Outside Reversal Day- Scalps Favor Buying Dips Above 96.38

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY breaches weekly opening range- bullish
  • Outside reversal day yesterday off key support 96.40 – bullish invalidation
  • Interim resistance 97.37/50- breach targets objectives at 98.14, 98.70 & 99.51/53
  • Support breaks targets objectives at 95.90-96.05, 95.66 & 94.46
  • Daily RSI rebound off 50- constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: FOMC and Japan Trade Balance tomorrow

AUD/JPY 30min Chart

AUD/JPY 30-Min Chart

Notes: The AUDJPY has made an outside reversal candle off key support today with the rally breaching through the initial weekly opening range. Note that this move now surpasses the Sunday open gap range and shifts our near-term bias to the topside while above 96.38. This level has remained a key pivot in price and is now defined the highest close for July & the weekly opening range low and will serve as our bullish invalidation level.

Bottom line: looking to buy dips while above the weekly opening range low with a breach above 97.54 opening up subsequent topside objectives. Note that the average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll increase the profit targets to 1/3 of the daily ATR- this puts us at approximately 21pips per scalp.Caution is warranted heading into significant event risk this week with Wednesday FOMC policy decision specifically likely to fuel added volatility. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

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* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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GBP Remains Vulnerable- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Upbeat BoC

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Rebounds Amid Sticky Core Inflation- Will BoE Minutes Reveal Larger Dissent?

- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Less-Dovish Rhetoric from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz

- USDOLLAR Vulnerable to Dovish FOMC; Forward-Guidance for Monetary Policy in Focus

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP Remains Vulnerable- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Upbeat BoC

  • Despite sticky core inflation in the U.K, the GBP/USD remains vulnerable to a further decline should the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes show another 7-2 split, while Scotland Referendum poses the largest risk for surprise should the region leave the U.K.
  • Despite the bullish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the oscillator could be carving out another lower-high as it dips back into oversold territory.
  • Nevertheless, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to narrow, with the ratio currently standing at +1.15.

USD/CAD

GBP Remains Vulnerable- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Upbeat BoC

  • USD/CAD slips to fresh weekly low of 1.0971 as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz natural recovery ‘appears to be underway.’
  • Nevertheless, will continue to look for a higher-low as the pair carves a higher-high in September; inverse head-and-shoulders remains in play as RSI retains bullish momentum.
  • Next downside region of interest comes in around 1.0900 (23.6% retracement) to 1.0920 (50.0% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Gold Exhaustion Near?

GBP/USD Extends Losses Below 1.6200 As UK CPI Slows To A 5-Year Low

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

GBP Remains Vulnerable- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Upbeat BoCGBP Remains Vulnerable- USD/CAD Risks Larger Correction on Upbeat BoC

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to mark string of higher-highs going into the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; still watching the July 2013 high (11,009).
  • We will continue to favor topside targets as long as the RSI retains the bullish trend & continues to push deeper into overbought territory.
  • The forward-guidance laid out by the FOMC will be the key focus as the central bank looks to halt its asset-purchase program at the October 29 meeting.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

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Dollar Squeezes Out Sixth Straight Advance Amid Financial Market Warnings

Talking Points:

  • Dollar Squeezes Out Sixth Straight Advance Amid Financial Market Warnings
  • British Pound Traders Weigh BoE Rate Forecasts Against Scottish Referendum
  • Euro Traders, Take Note of Investor Sentiment Surveys for Later

Dollar Squeezes Out Sixth Straight Advance Amid Financial Market Warnings

The chorus of officials issuing warning over the complacency and risks present in the financial system keeps building towards a crescendo. An appropriate start to a week laden with exceptionally important event risk – including Wednesday’s FOMC decision – both the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) remarked on the fundamental dislocations in the global financial system in their respective semi-annual assessments. Neither was shy nor opaque about their assessment that markets were “at odds” with the palpable risks that developed. Both would also connect the current state of contentedness in elevated asset prices and extremely low volatility levels to central banks’ accommodation. And, there is where traders’ interests should start.

Neither the OECD nor BIS wield control over specific monetary or financial policy levers; but their warnings add to a din worry among individual central banks, collective central bank standings, economists, analysts and especially market participants. It is only a matter of time before leverage, volume and participation normalize; and the combination of a rising backdrop of volume these past weeks and the upcoming FOMC rate decision offer the best circumstance for comprehensive change that we have seen in years. Given the Fed this past week officially set up a Financial Stability Committee, central bank research was released suggesting the market is underestimating the authority’s path moving forward and Chairwoman Yellen warned of froth in certain sectors; it is a strong possibility that a more concerted effort is made this go around to get the markets back on track.

As we count down the hours until the FOMC event, we will have some event risk to take in. In the upcoming session, the TICS capital flows data is as rudimentary a capital flow indicator as it gets. Yet, it is carries limited value given it is two months removed – July figures. Meanwhile, the factory price data (PPI) will give a good lead in to CPI. However, with the FOMC weigh in on policy, there is little room for its minor adjustment.

British Pound Traders Weigh BoE Rate Forecasts Against Scottish Referendum

Interest rate expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) have been a key driver for the British Pound for more than a year. But in the face of a vague and overwhelming threat like a member country threatening to leave the Economy, even such a prolific driver can be rendered second class. That is the state of affairs pound traders find themselves facing. Ahead, we have the August round of inflation figures – CPI, PPI, RPI. This data is critical for establishing the BoE’s ability to justify lifting rates. Then again, that hawkish pressure falls instantly flat if Scotland votes for independence on Thursday – among many other issues. Traders should watch the inflation data as it crosses the wires. However, its true impact will be felt over the medium-term so long as there isn’t a long-term distraction via a ‘Yes’ vote for the referendum.

Euro Traders, Take Note of Investor Sentiment Surveys for Later

Under normal circumstances, the Eurozone and German investor sentiment surveys from ZEW generate limited response from the shared currency and the region’s capital markets. That said, its importance should not be overlooked. While the focus has been on the implications of a loosening of monetary policy on yields and the currency – which is furthered by this week’s first Targeted-LTRO placement – a greater potential risk is what happens should the foreign capital that flooded the region were to reverse course. A drop in sovereign bond yields and disproportionate drop in EZ markets would have a reverberating impact on the currency.

Australian Dollar Gaps Lower to Start the Week After Weak Chinese Data

Though it wasn’t on the scale of the sterling’s massive opening dive last Monday, the Australian dollar led the way this week amongst the majors with a gap lower. The catalyst was a round of disappointing Chinese data. On Saturday – while markets were closed – China reported a more than 12-year low in fixed investment and the slowest pace of factory growth in over five years. The RBA minutes reminded us why this important when it noted today that China’s health is a key catalyst. Otherwise, their belief that the AUD is overvalued met little interest.

Will the BoJ and SNB Try to Keep Pace with the ECB’s Stimulus Efforts?

There are central banks whose policy is founded on their relative position to major counterparts. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), keeping a 1.2000-floor on EURCHF is a direct issues with the ECB’s stimulus bearings. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) finds itself in a similar position. Much of its effectiveness in devaluing the Yen owes to its late move and its solo view of expanding. Now what happens with the ECB moving?

Emerging Markets Receive Direct Warnings from BIS

The swell in global stimulus over the past years has encouraged excess in the Emerging Markets and thereby positions the segment at extraordinary risk moving forward as changes like a Fed shift are realized according to the BIS. The group noted that there is particular risk amongst these economies were corporate borrowing has hit levels that match output. What happens when rates rise on that exposure…

Gold Receives Brief Breather on ‘India Demand’ Story

India’s trade deficit ballooned in August according to data Monday, but that was an encouraging – if brief – boost for gold traders. According to the data, imports of precious metal jumped 176 percent in response to the easing of curbs on shipments. One country’s appetite is unlikely to sustain gold’s advance though. And, if data and events show the Fed and BoE are tightening the reins, the metal will suffer for it.

**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

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— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

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Pound May Pay Little Heed to UK CPI with Scotland Vote in Focus

Talking Points:

  • Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Fuel in UK CPI with Scotland Vote in Focus
  • US Dollar Volatility Risk Favors the Downside as PPI Report Lines Up Ahead
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Augusts’ UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to fall to 1.5 percent, revisiting the five-year low recorded in May. UK price growth data has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations over recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. While such an outcome is likely to weigh against BOE interest rate hike bets and put pressure on the British Pound, follow-through is likely to limited as traders wait for the outcome of Thursday’s Scottish Independence Referendum before demonstrating directional commitment.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US PPI report. Economists are looking for a pickup in wholesale inflation, with the year-on-year rate forecast to tick higher to 1.8 percent. If the release is to generate meaningful volatility, the probability that the US Dollar is left weaker thereafter seems asymmetrically higher than the alternative. An upbeat result would do little to materially amplify already strong speculation that rhetoric from the Federal Reserve will take a hawkish turn at this week’s FOMC meeting. On the other hand, a soft print would arrive after the greenback secured six consecutive days on the upside and set a new 13-month high, an environment that seems increasingly primed for a correction.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

Talking Points

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD short bias at risk ahead of key support 1.2895 – 1.2903
  • Scalp bias invalidation at 1.2980/86- breach targets 1.3018/20 (monthly bias invalidation)
  • Subsequent resistance objectives at 1.3158 & 1.3205/27- key resistance
  • Support break sub-1.2895 targets objectives at 1.2787, 1.2743 & 1.2660
  • Daily RSI resistance triggers pending- break would suggest recovery
  • Momentum signature holding sub 30- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: US & Eurozone Consumer Price Index(s) & FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday, US Building Permits, Housing Starts on Thursday

EURUSD 30min Chart

EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

Notes: The EURUSD decline has failed to close below key near-term support at 1.2895-1.2905 and the short-bias is at risk while above this threshold. Interim resistance stands just above the weekly opening range high / last week’s highs at 1.2980/86 and a breach above shifts the scalp bias higher targeting a Fibonacci confluence at 1.3018/20- a level if overtaken shifts the monthly bias back into neutral while below the September high at 1.3158.

Bottom line: looking for a break last week’s range with a breach above 1.3020 shifting the focus back to the September highs. Our broader outlook remains weighted to the short-side while below 1.3227 with a break/close sub-1.2895 targeting support objectives into the 2013 lows. Caution is warranted heading into significant event risk this week with Wednesday specifically likely to fuel added volatility in USD crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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US Dollar Remains a Buy as Volatility Surges – Here’s What to Watch

- US Dollar continues near major highs as volatility reigns supreme

- One-week volatility prices have surged to their highest on the year

- We favor vol-friendly Breakout trading strategies across USD and JPY pairs

A surge in volatility prices leaves us focused on big currency moves in the days and weeks ahead. We’re positioning for sharp price swings via these currency trading strategies.

How much might major US Dollar pairs move? Our DailyFX volatility indices are now at or near yearly highs, and the volatility-friendly US currency trades near similar peaks. Our preference is simple: continue buying into USD gains until we see a marked shift in trading conditions.

US Dollar Trades Near Multi-Year Highs as FX Volatility Prices Surge

US Dollar Remains a Buy as Volatility Surges - Here's What to Watch

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

Past performance is not indicative of future results, but such elevated volatility levels often coincide with outperformance in our high-vol Breakout2 trading strategy. Our trend-following Momentum2 trading strategy could do well on several currency pairs.

See the table below for full strategy rundown on a per-currency pair basis and keep track of changing conditions with future e-mail updates via my distribution list.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

US Dollar Remains a Buy as Volatility Surges - Here's What to Watch

US Dollar Remains a Buy as Volatility Surges - Here's What to Watch

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Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.