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Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Talking Points

The precious metals climbed at the outset of the week as improving risk appetite dampened safe-haven demand for their US Dollar counterpart. Further, recent “Fed speak” over the past week has been decidedly less hawkish, which has done little to benefit the USD. Amid a light US economic docket over the session ahead these themes could continue to weigh on the greenback, and aid gold and silver.

Meanwhile, crude oil retreated on Monday with newswires citing anticipation that OPEC producers will not adjust output to counter falling prices. Looking ahead, a thin US calendar will likely afford few bullish demand side cues to the growth-sensitive commodity. This may leave lingering supply glut concerns to weigh on the WTI and Brent benchmarks.

Also in the energy space; natural gas prices plunged to their lowest since November 2013 on speculation over milder US weather conditions. Recent storage data has revealed injections well-above the seasonal average. Another strong build from figures due on Thursday would likely amplify expectations for a supply glut and depress prices.

Finally, Copper slumped on Monday ahead of eagerly-awaited top-tier economic data from the largest consumer of the commodity, China. Third Quarter GDP and Retail Sales figures from the Asian giant are tipped to slump to their lowest since 2009. This may fan fears over a waning appetite for commodities from the manufacturing powerhouse, which in turn would be negative for the base metals.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Mon 20 Oct, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude has retreated from the 84.00 barrier after a Doji signaled reluctance from the bulls to lead the commodity higher. Alongside a core downtrend this leaves the risks focused on a retest of the psychologically-significant 80.00 handle.

Crude Oil: Stumbles At Former Support-Turned-Resistance

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Constructive signs remain for gold following a leap over the 1,241 hurdle, descending trendline, 20 SMA, and into positive territory on the Rate of Change indicator. This may open a test of former support-turned-resistance at 1,257.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bullish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Clears 1,241 Ceiling To Target 1,257

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver is at a crossroads as it probes above its long-respected descending trendline on the daily. A push into positive territory for the ROC indicator and climb over the 20 SMA suggests a potential turning point in sentiment. Yet scope for a recovery may be limited by sellers sitting overhead at the 23.6% Fib. Level near 17.80.

Silver: Sentiment Slowly Shifts As Prices Probe Above Trendline Resistance

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper’s short-lived recovery has faltered at the psychologically-significant 3.00 barrier, which has left a Hammer lacking confirmation. Alongside lingering indications of a downtrend (prices below 20 SMA) this suggests the risks remain skewed lower for a revisit of 2.96.

Copper: Fails To Crack The 3.00 Barrier

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium has bounced off the 735 target which has helped to confirm a Piercing Line pattern. Yet at this stage the recovery appears corrective within the context of a broader downtrend for the precious metal. A close below the 735 barrier would open the 695 floor.

Palladium: Awaiting Close Below Buying Interest At 735

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum is retesting the 20 SMA which has offered some resistance to the precious metal in the past. This could cap the extent of a rebound. Yet signs of fading downside momentum (ROC indicator) and a climb over the 23.6% Fib.suggests some caution is required when considering re-initiating shorts.

Platinum: At A Critical Juncture As Negative Momentum Subsides

Gold Tests Key Resistance At $1,291 Following Yellen Testimony

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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EURCAD Hits Target- Long Scalps Eye 1.4457 Resistance

Talking Points

EUR/CAD Daily Chart

EURCAD Hits Target- Long Scalps Eye 1.4457 Resistance

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURCAD testing key resistance confluence 1.4444/57- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.4613 & 1.4724/33
  • Interim support 1.4363/83, ~Former Channel Resistance- bullish invalidation
  • Key support still 1.4012/53
  • Daily RSI trigger breaks / highest momentum read since March- constructive
  • RSI 60-breach would be bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Retail Sales & Bank of Canada Rate Decision on Wednesday, Eurozone PMI on Thursday

EUR/CAD 30min Chart

EURCAD Hits Target- Long Scalps Eye 1.4457 Resistance

Notes: On October 1st we noted that the EURCAD was coming into key support at the 1.4053 support level with our topside bias in-play while above that key region. The pair subsequently rallied through the September opening range before finding resistance at our final topside objective at 1.4444 last week. The focus remains on this key resistance range which we will now extend into 1.4457 to respect the 61.8% retracement of the August decline. A breach of this region is needed to maintain our topside scalp bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives and completing what looks to be a five wave advance off the monthly low.

Bottom line: we’ll favor buying dips while above Friday’s low (1.4425/30) with a breach through o1.4444/58 (close basis) offering further validation for our near-term directional bias. Caution is warranted ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday with the event likely to fuel added volatility in CAD crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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GBP/USD Bullish Momentum Remains in Play- AUD/USD Breakout on Horizon

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Bullish RSI Break in Focus Ahead of BoE Minutes, 3Q U.K. GDP.

- AUD/USD Vulnerable to Dovish RBA Minutes, Slowing 3Q China GDP.

- USDOLLAR at Risk for Larger Correction on Subdued Consumer Price Inflation.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

  • GBP/USD looks poised for a more meaningful rebound as it threatens trendline resistance; bullish breakout in Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to favor topside targets, with the next level of interest coming in around the 1.6250 pivot to 1.6290 (61.8% expansion).
  • Bank of England (BoE) Minutes may continue to drag on interest rate expectations should they show another 7-2 split, while the 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may warn of a slowing recovery.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail-crowd remains net-long on GBP/USD since the beginning of the month as the ratio currently stands at +1.15.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

  • AUD/USD may break out of the wedge/triangle formation & resume the downward trend on dovish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes along with a marked slowdown in China’s 3Q GDP print.
  • Looks as though Governor Glenn Stevens will continue to implement the verbal intervention on the Australian dollar as the headline reading for inflation is expected to slow to an annualized 2.3% from 3.0% in the second-quarter..
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI for conviction/confirmation; next downside target comes in around the 0.8600 pivot to 0.8610 (38.2% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Weekly Trading Forecast: Complacency Cracks, Is this the Long-Await Reversal?

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

GBP/USD Bullish Momentum Remains in Play- AUD/USD Breakout on HorizonUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains vulnerable to a larger correction as the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
  • With the headline reading for U.S. inflation to slow further in September, subdued price growth may drag on interest rate expectations as the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • As the downward trending channel remains in play, 10,869 (78.6% retracement) to 10,887 (61.8% retracement) remains the next downside region of interest.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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Be Selective in EUR Exposure, Pockets of Strength Found

Talking Points:

- Euro recovering broadly as ECB conducts covered bond purchases.

- Traders await stress test results due Sunday afternoon.

- Euro Faces Economic Headwinds with Weakening German, Euro-Zone PMIs

As the US Dollar faces its own bout of uncertainty and vulnerability, there remains ample room within the downtrend contained by the May and July highs in EURUSD for a further rally up towards $1.2995, the mid-September swing high.

Perhaps providing a cushion to the Euro in the near-term is stretched market positioning. Even as EURUSD has recovered nearly 300-pips off of its early-October low, the futures market remains saturated with aggressively short speculators. Non-commercials/specs held 155.3K net-short contracts for the week ended October 14, an increase from the 146.2K net-short contracts held a week earlier. Latent potential for a short covering rally exists; it just needs the right catalyst.

Read more: The US Dollar’s Moment of Vulnerability

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Talking Points

Crude oil ended the session relatively flat on Friday as traders caught their breath following a volatile week. The growth-sensitive commodity witnessed a lackluster response to a climb in US consumer confidence to its highest since 2007. This may reflect some lingering concerns over an expected global supply glut, which may in turn limit the scope for a recovery over the near-term.

Meanwhile, the precious metals were left searching for direction amid a fairly flat session for their counterpart, the US Dollar. A light economic docket over the session ahead may afford gold and silver few cues and could leave their drift to continue. Later in the week US headline CPI data is expected to slide for the third consecutive month. Another subdued inflation reading may dampen Fed rate hike bets which could offer the alternative assets a source of support. Read more on the outlook for the week ahead with the US Dollar forecast and gold forecast.

Finally, copper may be set for further volatility with a busy week for Chinese economic data ahead. Third Quarter GDP figures and Retail Sales data from the Asian giant are tipped to slump to their lowest since 2009. This may fan fears over a waning appetite for commodities from the Asian giant and depress prices for the base metal.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Fri 17 Oct, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude’s recovery has stalled ahead of the 84.00 handle, which does little to inspire confidence in the Bullish Engulfing formation on the daily. Alongside a core downtrend this leaves the risks focused on a retest of the psychologically-significant 80.00 handle.

Crude Oil: Stumbles At Former Support-Turned-Resistance

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold is struggling to sustain its recent strength following a leap over the descending trendline, 20 SMA, and into positive territory on the Rate of Change indicator. A climb over former support-turned-resistance at 1,241 would be required to pave the way for a revisit of the 1,257 barrier.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Struggles Near 1,241 Ceiling

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver’s recent rebound remains seen as corrective within the context of a broader downtrend on the daily (20 SMA and descending trendline). Yet with downside momentum fading (reflected by the ROC) a consolidation remains the more likely path, rather than a sharp decline.

Silver: Consolidation Endures As Negative Sentiment Fades

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper’s rebound has produced a Hammer formation which awaits confirmation from a successive up-day and climb above 3.00. Yet lingering indications of a downtrend (prices below 20 SMA) suggests risks remain skewed lower for a revisit of 2.96.

Copper: Retests 3.00 Barrier

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium has bounced off the 735 target leaving a Piercing Line pattern in its wake. Yet at this stage the recovery appears corrective within the context of a broader downtrend for the precious metal. A close below the 735 barrier would open the 695 floor.

Palladium: Awaiting Close Below Buying Interest At 735

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum has found some buying interest renewed at the 1,242 barrier which has yielded a Piercing Line formation on the daily. The key reversal candlestick pattern awaits confirmation from an ensuing up session to signal a potential turnaround. A close below the 1,242 floor would suggest a resumption of the downtrend and open the recent lows near 1,186.

Platinum: Piercing Line Pattern Awaits Confirmation

Crude Oil Recovery Loses Steam, Copper Braces For Top-Tier China Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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Yen Drops, Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise on GPIF Asset Allocation Change

Talking Points:

  • Yen Drops, Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise on GPIF Asset Allocation Change
  • S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Futures Suggest Risk-On Mood Likely to Continue
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A swell in risk appetite at the start of the trading week put pressure on the safety-linked Japanese Yen while pushing the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 2 percent, with Japanese shares leading the way after a Nikkei News report cited unnamed sources revealing the new asset allocation for Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).

Asia’s largest pension fund will increase its holdings of Japanese stocks to 25 percent from 12 percent of the overall portfolio and cut the share allocated to JGBs to 40 percent from 60 percent. Foreign stocks and bonds were said to be allotted 30 percent of total holdings under the new setup, up from 23 percent. The fund will have leeway of up to 6 percent deviation from target distribution levels, meaning it could conceivably hold over 30 percent of its assets in Japanese equities.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours is likely to see sentiment trends remain at the forefront as the driver of price action. S&P 500andFTSE 100futures are pointing firmly higher in late Asian trade, hinting the “risk-on” mood is likely is likely to continue. September’s German PPI figures are due to show factory-gate prices fell at a year-on-year rate of 1 percent, marking the worst reading in eight months. The outcome may not yield a strong reaction from the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB stimulus expansion.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak