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- USDOLLAR Index breaking downtrend from April and June highs.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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- Euro, Yen Volatility Ahead as Eurozone Officials Meet for Greece Crisis Talks
- Australian Dollar Little-Changed After Another Status-Quo RBA Rate Decision
- Follow All the Latest Greece-Related NewsFlow via the Real Time News Feed
Greece remains in focus as the aftermath of the weekend’s referendum rejecting the EU-proposed debt deal terms continues to play out. Eurozone finance ministers are set to hold an emergency meeting to discuss how to proceed from here. This will set the stage for a Eurozone leaders’ summit thereafter.
EU officials’ willingness to entertain further negations is in question. To resume talks now may be seen as rewarding Athens’ intransigence. Policymakers may not want to set such a precedent as Spain’s Syriza-like Podemos party prepares for elections just around the corner.
Meanwhile, with most Greek debt now held by non-private entities, default contagion risk appears diminished. As such, Brussels may opt to leave Greece in the wind, with any follow-on economic hardship to act as a cautionary tale for would-be imitators.
With this in mind, traders will keep a watchful eye on the rhetoric emerging out of today’s meetings. A conciliatory tone may raise hopes for progress and offer a boost to the Euro as well as lift market-wide risk appetite, weighing on the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Signs of reluctance to re-engage with Athens are stand to yield the opposite results.
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— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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- Crude oil prices picked up in Asian trade coming up to a Eurogroup meeting
- Gold fell as Europe’s contagion risk faded, looking to USD and Fed minutes
- Copper has been flat after yesterday’s loss, still weighed by China equities
Crude oil prices are attempting to recover in Asia morning trade after suffering the biggest loss in five months yesterday. Anxiety about economic stability in Europe and China coupled with the prospect of additional supplies from Iran induced a 7.7 percent loss in WTI and 6.3 percent loss in Brent overnight. As market players await revived Greek debt negotiations at Tuesday’s Eurogroup meeting, the drop in prices paused and a rebound began at Asian open. WTI oil has put on nearly 0.9 percent and Brent has gained back over 1 percent.
While worries of a contagion from the Greek crisis seemed to fade, the full effect of China’s measures to stem the stock exchange slump and spill-over affects to its economy remain to be seen. The deleveraging process continues in China’s equity market after the Shanghai exchange recorded a 29 percent drop in June.
Gold has fallen in Asia morning trade after a 0.1 percent rise yesterday, as the US Dollar and the outlook for higher US interest rates continue to provide downward pressure. Prior safe haven flows into gold have moderated, perhaps as contagion risk from Greece into other peripheral countries was discounted. This has been shown in stabilising yield spreads between Italian/Portuguese and German bonds, both of which are trading much lower than the peaksrecording during the last Greek debt crisis episode. Gold will look to US Dollar movements following the release of minutes from June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for direction clues. The Fed’s board will also hold a closed-door meeting planning Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress scheduled for July 15-16, but the absence of follow-on commentary may make this a non-event for markets.
Copper has stayed flat today awaiting the outcome of Tuesday’s meeting among European leaders. Copper saw the biggest loss since January at 2.9 percent yesterday. Prices are still bogged down by big swings in China’s stock market that threaten to spill over to economic activity at large. The Shanghai Composite Index has lost a further 3.6 percent today as the interventions announced on Monday have not deterred the sell-off. These measures included a suspension in IPOs and committed inflows from 21 brokerages. Market players have deemed these measures rather short-term in nature and thereby insufficient to address the deleveraging issue. Copper prices are down 11 percent so far this year.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold has been sold since Asia open despite an upward bias in momentum signals. This rebound in momentum will likely help to contain further losses and keep gold above support at 1162.50 for now. Bullion remains volatile at this close proximity to support and as such does not warrant range trades. A break of support would open up the 1150 region below, followed by the next support level at 1142.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper has stayed flat in Asia trade after yesterday’s fall broke through a support and touched down to the 2.5050 level. Downward pressure persists and there is still room for lower extensions all the way towards another support at 2.4190. A return of the lower-low pattern in the next few sessions would provide a good sign for the bears. Otherwise consolidation will likely continue right above support levels.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – WTI oil is hovering over 50% Fibo support at 52.28 today after its descent from the 55.50 region in yesterday’s trade. Downward momentum looks to be waning. This would help to hold prices above support level. The bears may wait for a break of this level and subsequent tests of the 61.8% Fibo level at 49.86 before considering short positions.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
— Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh
- We studied 10’s of millions real trades to find meaningful insights on trading
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Our studies on 10’s of millions of real trades showed patterns which we believe highlight the Traits of Successful Traders – what have some traders done to set themselves apart from the rest?
Our key findings can be summarized in three key points and reports
- Money management is the single-most important factor in trading. Indeed, we highlight the Number One Mistake Forex Traders Make and how we might address it
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Though by no means exhaustive, these reports can help give a trader a foundation with which to learn and avoid the most common mistakes committed by traders. Read the above and follow along with future Traits of Successful Traders series reports for more.
The Traits of Successful Traders
Over the past several months, The DailyFX Research team has been closely studying the trading trends of FXCM clients, utilizing the trade data at FXCM. We have gone through an enormous number of statistics and anonymized trading records in order to answer one question: “What separates successful traders from unsuccessful traders?”. We have been using this unique resource to distill some of the “best practices” that successful traders follow, such as the best time of day, appropriate use of leverage, the best currency pairs, and more.
Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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- Updated targets & invalidation levels
- Event Riskon TapThisWeek
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Notes: The Sunday open gaped into confluence resistance at 11969 with the pullback now testing former key resistance turned support at 11924/35. The gap has now been filled and we’ll look for a break of this range early in the week for further clarity on our near-term directional bias.
Notes: Sterling is responding to trendline support extending off the yearly lows with the rally now taking the pair back above the yearly open at 1.5574. Our medium-term focus is higher in the pair while above 1.5470 (bullish invalidation) with a breach above Friday’s high needed to shift the focus higher. Such a scenario targets resistance objectives at 1.54774 & the key 1.5877-1.5940 barrier. Note that we’ll want to see 50-hold support here in daily momentum.
For updates on this scalp and more setups throughout the week subscribe to SB Trade Desk
Key Data Releases this Week
Other Setups in Play:
- Key Levels to Know on USD Majors Heading into NFPs and July Trade
- CADJPY Short Scalps Favored Sub-99.00 on Failed Gap Fill
- Webinar: Greece Charges Euro Gap & Snapback- USDJPY Remains at Risk
- USDJPY Runs Into Key Resistance- Short Scalps Favored Sub 124.35
- GBPJPY Opening Range Setup- Long Scalps Vulnerable Sub 195.50
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
- US Dollar remains in position to outperform
- Elevated volatility prices leave us in favor of our Breakout2 trading system
Volatility prices remain high as Greek voters rejected a Eurogroup bailout and raised the risks of a Greek exit from the Euro Zone. We like trading high-volatility strategies until further notice.
We view further financial market volatility and turbulence as likely given clear uncertainty surrounding Greece’s future in the Euro Zone. And indeed the safe-haven US Dollar remains in a position to outperform given recent strength versus the Euro and the commodity bloc (AUD, CAD, and NZD).
Volatility prices themselves have actually pulled back somewhat since last week but remain elevated—particularly in the Euro and other risk-sensitive currencies. Relatively limited economic event risk in the week ahead explains much of the decline in vols. And as such we view a more sustained decline in market volatility as relatively unlikely.
Forex Volatility Prices Pull back on Limited Event Risk, but Market Turbulence Remains Likely
Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations
Thus current market conditions may favor our Breakout2 trading strategy in most of the especially risk-sensitive currency pairs. This means watching the US Dollar versus the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Canadian Dollar in particular. While certain Yen pairs also show elevated risks of outsized moves in the days and weeks ahead.
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
Understand the Breakout2 Trading System via our previous article
Auto trade the trend reversal-trading Momentum2system via our previous article.
Trade with strong trends via our Momentum1 Trading System
Use our counter-trend Range2 Trading system
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.