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USD/JPY Fueling Broader USD Breakout; EUR/USD Weak Under 1.3400

Talking Points:

- EURUSD denied at 1.3400 after Euro-Zone CPI.

- USDCAD looks for 1.0954 before pullback.

- July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however.

US Treasury yields have turned higher, and the relationship between weaker bond prices and a stronger US Dollar is starting to emerge. Whereas the 20-day correlation between the DXY and the US10YY was +0.113 on Tuesday, it became more significant by market close on Wednesday at +0.334.

USD/JPY Fueling Broader USD Breakout; EUR/USD Weak Under 1.3400

Considering that US yields have been so weak for the past several months, if the relationship between yields and the greenback tightens up, higher yields necessarily translate into US Dollar strength. Higher yields in the belly of the yield curve (3Y-7Y) suggests market participants are starting to price in a rate hike coming from the Fed perhaps sooner than previously believed.

Today can be viewed as an ‘eye of the storm’ type day, considering that there’s no major US event risk: yesterday saw ADP, GDP, FOMC; tomorrow sees NFPs, PCE, ISM.

See the video above for a technical outlook on USDOLLAR Index, USDJPY, EURUSD, and USDCAD.

Read more: USDOLLAR in Breakout Territory amid ADP, GDP, FOMC

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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EUR/JPY Remains Capped by Former Support; Lower-High in Place?

Talking Points:

- EUR/JPY at Risk for Lower-High as Focus Turns to ECB & BoJ Meetings

- Waiting for RSI Break on USD/CAD to Favor Downside Targets

- USDOLLAR Remains Overbought Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

EUR/JPY:

  • Despite the downturn in risk sentiment, EUR/JPY continues to threaten former support around 137.70-90.
  • Need a turn in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for confirmation/conviction of a lower-high as it threatens the bearish momentum from earlier this year.
  • European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions may set the tone for the August trade as the Governing Council looks to implement more non-standard measures.

USD/CAD:

  • Sits at support from the beginning of the year around 1.0900-20, while the RSI struggles to push into overbought territory.
  • A bearish break in the oscillator should highlight a near-term topping process in the USD/CAD.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index shows retail crowd has turned net-short USD/CAD this week as the ratio stands at -1.90.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

EUR/JPY Remains Capped by Former Support; Lower-High in Place?

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

USD/JPY Fueling Broader USD Breakout; EUR/USD Weak Under 1.3400

USDOLLAR Daily

EUR/JPY Remains Capped by Former Support; Lower-High in Place?

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains overbought as it threatens the next topside objective around 10,555-10,561.
  • Need to see the RSI break down from the bullish trend for a near-term pullback; looks as though a more bullish outlook will take shape as the Fed remains on course to halt its quantitative easing (QE) program in October; when will markets start to price it in?
  • Beyond Non-Farm Payrolls (+231K), we will keep a close eye on Average Weekly Earnings (2.2%) as Chair Janet Yellen continues to highlight the slack in the labor market.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Talking Points

  • Gold and Crude Oil Traders Eagerly Await Round 2 Of US Data
  • Natural Gas In A Precarious Position Ahead of Storage Figures
  • Copper Turns To Upcoming Chinese Economic Data For Cues

Crude oil and gold could be afforded some breathing room in the session ahead as traders await guidance from a second round of top-tier US data on Friday. Meanwhile, natural gas will be in the firing line ahead of another set of storage figures that may put the commodity under pressure. Finally, copper could resume its climb if upcoming Chinese PMI figures continue a string of recent upside surprises from the Asian giant.

Precious Metals Hold Their Breath Ahead Of NFPs

Gold and silver have managed to stay standing following round one of this week’s barrage of US event risk. A blowout US Q2 GDP reading generated a spike higher for the greenback and weakness for gold. However, the precious metal managed to recover some ground after the FOMC July Statement revealed policy makers remain concerned about ‘slack’ in the US labor market. This in turn suggests the central bank may refrain from hiking rates until broader measures of activity including wage growth pickup.

This turns the heat up for round two on Friday with the release of the July NFP figures. An unexpected drop in the headline unemployment rate or upside surprise to the jobs added reading could generate further gains for the greenback (and put pressure on gold). However, follow-through likely requires evidence of progress in the aforementioned gauges like wage growth and underemployment.

Inventories, Russian Supply Weighs On Crude

Brent suffered its largest one day percentage decline in 6 weeks (-1.12 percent) on Wednesday with similar declines witnessed for WTI. This may reflect easing Russian supply disruption fears with the West refraining from extending sanctions to the country’s oil exports at this stage. The related risk premium from such speculation has likely been unwound at this point, which suggests further declines on fading Russian supply concerns may be limited.

Additional pressure was put on the commodity on Wednesday by the DOE’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which revealed another build in gasoline inventories to their highest level in four months. Distillate inventories also climbed to a 10 month high. Taken together newswires have suggested this reflects less demand for crude. However, an examination of the seasonal changes for gasoline stockpiles reveals recent figures are only slightly above their 5 year average. If this trend were to continue over the coming weeks this could give the argument for lessening demand some weight, but at this stage there appears to be little cause for concern.

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Natural Gas Consolidates Ahead of Storage Data

The release of the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the EIA over the session ahead is likely putting natural gas traders on edge. The commodity has plunged by over 20 percent since its high in June on the back of a string of above-average storage builds. If the latest reading prints above the consensus estimate it could see sellers tighten their grip and put renewed pressure on the commodity.

Copper Turns To Chinese Data For Cues

Both the official and HSBC PMI figures due on Friday could help offer copper some guidance. A rebound in Chinese economic data witnessed over the past several months has helped alleviate concerns over a further deceleration of economic growth. If the trend of upside surprises continues it would signal a healthy appetite for base metals by the Asian giant. In turn this could help copper resume its climb.

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Source: Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

As noted in yesterday’s commodities report the immediate risk was to the downside for WTI with prices below the 20 SMA and ROC in negative territory. Following the 99.42 mark being hit there may be room for a corrective bounce. A retest of 101.03 mark (23.6% Fib) or daily close below 98.90 would be seen as a fresh opportunity to enter new short positions.

Crude Oil: Awaiting Recovery Or Downside Break For New Shorts

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The emergence of a short-term downtrend for gold casts the immediate risk to the downside with a break of 1,292 (50% Fib) to open 1,280. An absence of candlestick reversal signals casts doubt on a potential recovery at this point.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Descent To Continue In Absence Of Key Reversal Patterns

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver has regained its footing at the 20.43 mark (38.2% Fib Level) after crashing through former support-turned resistance at 20.83. The risk remains for a turn lower given a downtrend has emerged for the precious metal (signaled by the 20 SMA). Buyers are likely to emerge near the psychologically-significant 20.00 handle.

Silver: At Risk Of Further Falls, $20.00 Handle In Focus

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has demonstrated fairly choppy price action over the past several weeks which leaves a mixed technical bias for the commodity. A break of the 38.2% Fib Level at 3.19 would be required to shift the immediate risk to the downside.

Copper: Awaiting Break To Offer Directional Bias

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Playing palladium’s uptrend remains preferred with the prospect of a run on the psychologically-significant 900 handle over the near-term still looking likely. However, a several Doji candlesticks and decline for the ROC indicator offer warnings signs that upside momentum may be fading, which will be closely monitored.

Palladium: Longs Remain Preferred With Uptrend Intact

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

While platinum has maintained a slight upward trajectory over recent months, more recent price action has been relatively rough, which leaves a mixed technical bias for the commodity. A Piercing Line formation offers a bullish signal however a push above the 20 SMA would be required before suggesting a run on the channel top.

Platinum: Bounce Off Trend Channel Bottom Sees Bullish Pattern Emerge

Crude Oil And Gold Regain Footing Ahead of Round 2 For US Event Risk

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if CPI Data Tops Forecasts

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Bounce from 9-Month Low if Flash CPI Data Beats Forecasts
  • New Zealand Dollar Bounces as Markets Chew Over RBNZ Policy Outlook
  • View Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary estimate of July’s Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate to register at 0.5 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Leading PMI data from Markit Economics suggested output prices fell at a faster pace this month compared with June, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may feed ECB stimulus expansion bets, weighing on the Euro.

It ought to be noted however that price-growth figures out of the single currency area have steadily improved relative to economists’ forecasts since the beginning of the year, according to figures from Citigroup. That means analysts have tended to over-estimate the extent of Eurozone disinflation. If that proves to be the case this time around, an upbeat print may help the single currency correct higher after sliding to the lowest level in nearly nine months against the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move paced a rebound in the island nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the Kiwi’s bounce reflected a correction as markets re-price monetary policy expectations following last week’s RBNZ rate decision.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Dollar Rallies, But What Was the Source of Strength?

Talking Points:

  • Dollar Rallies, But What Was the Source of Strength?
  • Euro Advances as Spanish GDP Outperforms, Yields Rise
  • Yen Crosses the Best Performing ‘Risk’ Assets

Dollar Rallies, But What Was the Source of Strength?

In a storm of fundamentals, the dollar did not escape a swell of volatility this past session. However, the currency’s remarkable rally didn’t exactly fit the expected interpretation of the event risk. Then again, neither did the general sentiment mix within the financial system look like the cookie cutter response. And, that clear dollar move amid the tumult is important to appreciate as we project its heading moving forward. Assessing performance first, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) surged beyond 10,500 on one of the biggest advances in four months. Furthermore, the greenback’s performance was broad and uniform with gains versus all of its major counterparts.

The dollar’s performance isn’t remarkable because of the event risk itself, but the lack of consistency in the market’s response. From the 2Q US GDP release, the disparity became clear. A robust 4.0 percent pace of annualized growth through the quarter soundly beat the 3.0 percent consensus and quieted fears of stalled economy following the unexpected first quarter slump (which was itself revised to a smaller contraction). A notable addition to this report was the core PCE inflation measure which jumped to 2.0 percent – the Fed’s target. From a risk appetite perspective, this could have sent investors clamoring for higher risk / higher return assets. Yet, the S&P 500 and Dow edged down and high-yield corporate bonds dropped. Then there was the rally in yen crosses – the FX-version of the ‘long risk trade’. But perhaps the most marked response was the jump in FX Volatility.

In the wake of the economic data, an upgraded interest rate forecasts was more consistent. Treasury yields in area of the curve that aligns to the likely time frame for central bank rate hikes surged and Fed Fund futures priced in an advance in hawkish speculation. With the hawks in dollar bulls in charge, the FOMC decision could have proved low-hanging fruit. However, the central bank deftly avoided providing speculators something to work with. Aside from the $10 billion Taper to QE3 (fully priced in), the Fed’s statement hedged its bets by saying that the chance of inflation persistently below its target 2 percent was diminishing while also noting that there was significant underutilization of labor resources. This noncommittal view will leverage the emphasis on Friday’s combination of July NFPs and June PCE inflation – the primary indicators for the central bank’s dual mandate. In the meantime, traders should keep a wary eye on risk trends as well.

Euro Advances as Spanish GDP Outperforms, Yields Rise

While the focus was on the US docket, the Euro-area newswires were offering up noteworthy headlines. On the data side, Spain’s own 2Q GDP reading beat expectations with a 0.6 percent increase through the period and the Eurozone economic sentiment index ticked higher. From more fundamental concerns, a notable jump in Italian and Spanish yields is too early to be called a sovereign bond risk. Ahead, we may see a refocus on monetary policy and the possibility of the ECB promoting further accommodation with the EZ employment and inflation data on deck.

Yen Crosses the Best Performing ‘Risk’ Assets

In a mixed view of speculative appetites this past session, the Yen crosses stand out as the most unusual. While equities were evasive and volatility readings rose, these carry trade proponents charged higher. Beyond the lack of drive for the appetite for income trades like these crosses (the DB carry harvest index dropped is just off a two-month low), this is a currency that has shown a remarkable disconnect from positive speculative moves through much of 2014. If a universal appetite for income / dividend / yield doesn’t arise, these pairs are at risk.

Canadian Dollar Traders Weigh in on GDP Data

Year-to-date, the Canadian dollar is down against most of its major counterparts (the exception is the Euro). The dovish turn from the Bank of Canada has put material pressure on this once prominent carry currency. A neutral stance is the more likely bearing moving forward, but will the policy authority be driven to a more proactive effort moving forward? Data like today’s May GDP reading and wage growth figures will play a considerable role in shaping that decision for the BoC and expectations for the market.

Swiss Franc: SNB Tells Us How Expensive its Policy Efforts Are

How expensive is it to maintain the Swiss franc’s floor? We will find out in this morning’s report from the Swiss National Bank. The policy authority is scheduled to report is 2Q earnings on the assets that it has purchased to facilitate its position as well as its currency allocation. The exposure to the Euro keeping EURCHF above 1.2000 is to be expected, but details can illuminate what further steps they could take.

Emerging Market: Ukraine GDP Plunges, Russia Meets Fresh Sanctions

Just a day after the US and European Union announced new sanctions on Russia, the G7 released a common statement voicing a willingness to take further steps should the country not change its stance on Ukraine. The Ruble continues its slide lower versus the US dollar, but the news wasn’t amplifying momentum. Meanwhile, the Ukraine reported that its economy dropped 4.7 percent in the year through 2Q.

Gold Looks for Intensified Fed Bias, Doesn’t Find It

While the dollar rallied, the Yen tumbled and interest rate expectations boomed; gold was virtually unchanged. Despite the headlines, the metal would see none of its major roles – safe haven, currency alternative, inflation hedge – generate significant response from traders. Meanwhile, volume was tepid in derivatives and open interest in gold futures is seeing an exacerbated collapse.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

01:30

AUD

Export Price Index (QoQ)

-4.0%

3.6%

A rise in export prices typically has a bullish impact on the Australian Dollar

01:30

AUD

Import Price Index (QoQ)

-1.5%

3.2%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM)

0.0%

9.9%

Can be an indicator of change in Australia’s housing market

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY)

23.3%

14.3%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM)

0.4%

0.4%

A rise in loans shows the willingness of companies to take out loans to invest in growth

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY)

4.6%

4.7%

01:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)

0.8%

0.6%

Measure of wage inflation, an important metric that BoJ’s easing policy is trying to increase

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts

0.857M

0.872M

A strong rise in these figures from the Japan housing market is likely to indicate a positive consumer sentiment in the island nation

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY)

13.7%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY)

-11.5%

-15.0%

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY)

11.3%

11.8%

The Bank of England is currently try to curb a rise in housing prices to prevent a bubble

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM)

0.5%

1.0%

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

-5K

9K

Employment change and consumer sentiment are two important agendas for the ECB currently as it is trying to battle deflation and prevent the Eurozone from entering into recession through monetary policy

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a.

6.7%

6.7%

08:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate

12.6%

12.6%

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

11.6%

11.6%

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)

0.5%

0.5%

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY)

0.8%

0.8%

11:30

USD

Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)

-20.2%

One of the last employment figure indicators before all-important NFPs

11:30

USD

RBC Consumer Outlook Index

50.5

Consumer attitudes on the current and future economic outlook are usually strong indicators of consumer sentiment

12:30

USD

Employment Cost Index

0.5%

0.3%

Provides a picture of changing trends in the labor industry by detailing changes in labor costs for businesses in the US

12:30

CAD

Average Weekly Earnings (YoY)

3.3%

The Bank of Canada is currently focused on tackling downside inflation risk and GDP is lower on its agenda

12:30

CAD

Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

CAD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

2.3%

2.1%

12:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

300K

284K

Employment numbers are an important release tracked by the Fed to determine it monetary policy

12:30

USD

Continuing Claims

2492K

2500K

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index

48.9

Has held below 50 for eight months

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY)

2.2%

Loan growth has slowed from its persistent recovery the past 3 years

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

v

— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Forex Capital Markets, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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USDOLLAR Tests June High; Overbought for First Time in 2014

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Continues to Search for Support as RSI Fails to Retain Bullish Trend

- USD/CAD Breakout Gathers Pace; Trades Back Above Former-Support

- USDOLLAR Coming Up Against Trendline Resistance Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC

GBP/USD:

  • Will continue to watch downside targets as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to preserve the bullish momentum carried over from 2013.
  • Will retain a constructive long-term view as long as GBP/USD holds above June low (1.6697); Bank of England (BoE) remains on course to normalize monetary policy ahead of Fed.
  • However, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for GBP/USD has flipped, with the ratio now standing at +1.05; retail crowd has turned net-long the British Pound.

USD/CAD:

  • Bullish RSI momentum favors bullish breakout as USD/CAD carves long-term higher-low in July.
  • A break above 1.0900-20 should favor a move into the key Fibonacci confluence around 1.1000-20.
  • Long-term outlook remains bullish as USD/CAD preserves the upward trend from 2014, while Bank of Canada (BoC) retains a dovish tone for monetary policy.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

USDOLLAR Tests June High; Overbought for First Time in 2014

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

USD/JPY Rallies as US GDP Rebounds Strongly in the Second-Quarter

AUD/USD 0.9320 Floor In Focus Following Dark Cloud Cover Formation

USDOLLAR Daily

USDOLLAR Tests June High; Overbought for First Time in 2014

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index tests June high (10,541) as U.S. 2Q GDP well-exceeds market expectations; RSI shows first overbought reading for 2014.
  • Need less-dovish forward-guidance from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to favor additional USD strength; will Fed hawks finally dissent?.
  • May face a near-term pullback ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (+230K) as the ADP Employment report disappoints.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums