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Is the USDOLLAR Establishing a Bottom?

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Index holds daily 34-EMA as support.

- EURUSD main driver behind broader USDOLLAR rebound.

- See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era.

The rapid build in short positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting brought the market back in line with the extreme positioning seen in early-February (196.3K net-short contracts for the week ended February 3), right before a month-long consolidation developed in EURUSD. Now that the Fed has essentially changed the goalposts on raising rates – pushing the likelihood of the first rate hike to December, per the federal funds futures contracts implied probability – the weak data coming out of the US provides good reason for the massive net-long US Dollar position to be unwound.

US economic data has been coming in well-below analysts’ expectations, as forecasters have tended to be too optimistic about the US economy upon the start of a new year. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESIUSD), a gauge of economic data momentum relative to expectations, has fallen to its lowest levels since July 2012.

Even during a period of seasonal weakness (US data has underperformed during Q1 and early-Q2), 2015 has been unseasonably weak. The average of the CESIUSD over the past five years (2010-2014) on March 24 is +24.64, whereas the 2015 reading currently sits at -57.8. Even compared to last year, when the cold winter roiled the economy in the first few months of the year, the CESIUSD only registered -32.6 on March 24. Needless to say, data so far in 2015 has been vastly underperforming expectations.

The selling across USD-pairs has brought the greenback squarely in line with perhaps its most significant mean reverting level over the past eight-months. The daily 34-EMA, which has defined the USDOLLAR Index uptrend since last July and has held as support on numerous occasions in between, now faces a very real threat of losing its grip as the backbone of the rally. Coincidentally, EURUSD’s daily 34-EMA has held as resistance in line with the post-FOMC swing high of $1.1040. This is a good reference level for market participants, considering US economic data has been so negative and a rate hike in 2015 is unlikely before December: perhaps all of the negativity surrounding the greenback is priced in for the immediate future.

Read more: Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Currency Markets Focus on ECB, BOE, Fed Commentary Into Week-End

Talking Points:

  • FX Markets Eye ECB, BOE, Fed Commentary into Week-End
  • Commodity Dollars Drop Alongside Oil , Iron Ore Prices in Asia
  • Access Real-Time Markets Analysis with DailyFX on Demand

Central bank commentary is likely to overshadow a lackluster economic calendar through the end of the trading week. From the Bank of England, scheduled remarks from Governor Mark Carney, Chief Economist Andy Haldane and Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent are due to cross the wires. From the ECB, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is on tap. Finally, from the Federal Reserve, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen are in the queue.

For the Fed and the BOE, the central question is that of timing for oncoming interest rate hikes. Both central banks have seen recent moderation in tightening expectations and traders will be keen to dissect their officials’ rhetoric to further inform speculation.

For the ECB, the issue of Greecewill probably take center stage considering its QE effort is effectively on auto-pilot for now. Athens faces a deadline to deliver a list of reforms meant to unlock bailout funds by Monday and the markets will want to hear the monetary authority’s position on what may happen thereafter, regardless of whether the plan is accepted or not by the Greece’s creditors.

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade. The move tracked a pullback in crude oil and iron ore prices. While a discrete catalyst is not readily apparent, it is possible that traders reflexively defaulted to selling the so-called “commodity currencies” amid broad weakness in the raw materials space.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Talking Points

AUD/USD Daily

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD reverses off median-line / Fibonacci confluence at 7938
  • Pullback now testing initial support at 7800- bullish invalidation level
  • Break below targets weekly low & 7700
  • Breach of this formation targets 8013/22 backed by the November 2014 ML (dark green)
  • Pending momentum support trigger- break would reinforce near-term bias
  • Event Risk Ahead: US Q4 GDP (final), Personal Consumption & University of Michigan Sentiment Surveys tomorrow morning

AUD/USD 30min

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Notes: Aussie is coming off big technical resistance with the break sub-7850 shifting focus lower in the pair. The focus heading into Friday the 7800-7850 range a general short-bias in play while within the proposed medina-line formation off the highs (dashed blue) Note that the pair is not testing the median-line off the monthly lows & could produce a near-term rebound.

Bottom line: looking to sell rallies / short-triggers in momentum while below 7850 with only a breach above weekly TL resistance invalidating the short-side bias. Such a scenario eyes subsequent resistance targets into 7900/11 & the 7938 key Fibonacci level. That’s said, note interim support at 7800 with a break below the proposed median line opening eyeing scalp targets at 7750/62 & the 77-handle. Ultimately a pull into this region would have us looking for long triggers. Caution is warranted heading into tomorrow’s US data print with the final release of the Q4 GDP data likely to fuel added volatile in USD crosses. A quarter of the Daily ATR yield profit targets of 24-27 pips per scalp.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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GBP/USD 1.47 Support in Focus Ahead of BoE Rhetoric as Momentum Wanes

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Threatens Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of BoE Rhetoric- 1.4700 Remains Key.

- USD/JPY Tests 118.20 Support Ahead of Japan CPI; Broader Range in Focus.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Rebound from Support- 4Q GDP, Fed’s Yellen and Fischer on Tap.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • May continue to see range-bound prices in GBP/USD amid the failed attempts to close above 1.4980 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5015 (50% expansion), while the RSI fails to retain the bullish momentum.
  • With the rebound in U.K. Retail Sales, may see Bank of England (BoE) officials sound more upbeat, with Andy Haldane, Ben Broadbent, and Governor Mark Carney scheduled to speak on Friday; may see more of the same from the committee ahead of the May election.
  • Even though DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD, seeing the ratio narrow to +1.49 amid the pickup in short-interest.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

  • Despite the rebound ahead of near-term support around 118.20 (61.8% retracement), USD/JPY may continue to probe fresh lows as the bearish RSI momentum appears to be gathering pace.
  • A marked slowdown in Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may ramp up bets for additional monetary support, but it seems as though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will retain its current policy throughout the first-half of 2015 as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains upbeat on the economy.
  • Despite the capital-flows going into the end of Japan’s fiscal year, bearish momentum favors the downside targets, with the next region of interest coming in around 117.00 (61.8% expansion) to 117.20 (78.6% retracement).

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Read More:

Price & Time: Cable Bucking the Correction

EURJPY Long Scalps at Risk Below FOMC High- Interim Support 130.60

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

GBP/USD 1.47 Support in Focus Ahead of BoE Rhetoric as Momentum WanesUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the mixed batch of data coming out of the U.S. economy, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index may continue to track sideways and trade above the low (11,886) marked by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as the bullish trending channel largely remains in play.
  • Will keep a close eye on the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer amid the shift in the forward-guidance for monetary policy; may see the Fed commentary have a greater impact than the final 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report .
  • 11,992 (38.2% retracement) remains largely in focus, but need a break of the bearish RSI momentum to revert back to the approach to ‘buy-dips’ in the greenback.

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Index struggling at post-FOMC low, daily 34-EMA.

- USDJPY wipes out below 119.25, contrary to March seasonality.

- See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era.

The Japanese Yen is defying its seasonal tendancies right now, which could set up an interesting month of April. Typically, at least over the past five years, March has seen the Yen depreciate against its major counterparts, especially towards the end of the month due to the turnover of the Japanese fiscal year. Yet this year has been quite different, with USDJPY now sliding to fresh weekly lows and the Q1 uptrend showing signs of breaking.

Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

Indeed, if the Yen is able to break its seasonal tendancy, then it enters the most bullish portion of the year for the funding currency with wind at its back. The Japanese Yen has seen appreciation versus its major counterparts on average from April to August, and a jumpstart on that trend (be it due to lower global yields or geopolitical risk) could prime pairs like USDJPY, EURJPY, and GBPJPY for a rough few weeks ahead.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY, and AUDUSD.

Read more: Important Few Days Ahead as USD Eyes Key Technical Levels

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form