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News

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GBP Crosses Sitting at Support Following BoE- U.K. 2Q GDP in Focus

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Holds Near-Term Support Despite Unanimous BoE Vote

- NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Outlook

- USDOLLAR Topping Process Remains in Focus; 10,470 in View

GBP/USD:

  • Slips to a fresh weekly low of 1.7022 as Bank of England (BoE) Minutes shows a 9-0 vote to retain current policy.
  • Sitting at key Fibonacci confluence around 1.7020-30; lower-high in place?
  • Markets turning attention to the BoE Inflation report due out on August 13 as there appears to be a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to show net-short positioning in GBP/USD as the ratio stands at -2.6125.

NZD/USD:

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate hike, but forward-guidance for monetary policy will be key focus.
  • Need greater willingness from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler for another rate hike later this year.
  • According to Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS), 12-month expectations show the cash rate increasing by 70bp.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

GBP Crosses Sitting at Support Following BoE- U.K. 2Q GDP in Focus

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Unbreakable

BoE Sings Dovish Tune – How Threatened are GBP Longs?

USDOLLAR Daily

GBP Crosses Sitting at Support Following BoE- U.K. 2Q GDP in Focus

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains at risk of a near-term topping process as it retains the descending channel from earlier this year.
  • Will need to see another close above 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to look for a more meaningful run at the 10,470 pivot.
  • A bearish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may suggest that a lower-high is in place.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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NZD/USD to Carve Higher-Low on Hawkish RBNZ Forward-Guidance

- RBNZ Expected to Raise the Cash Rate for the Fourth Consecutive Meeting.

- Benchmark Interest Rate of 3.50% Would Mark the Highest Level Since 2009.

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision

Despite expectations of seeing another 25bp rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the forward-guidancefor monetary policy will be the key focus as market participants see the central bank taking a pause from its normalization cycle.

What’s Expected:

NZD/USD RBNZ

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, the weaker-than-expected 2Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dragged on interest rate expectations as the resilience in the New Zealand dollar dampens the outlook for price growth, and the NZD/USD may face a larger correction over the near-term should the central bank soften its hawkish tone for monetary policy.

For Real-Time Updates and Potential Trade Setups on the New Zealand Dollar, sign up for DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The pickup in household confidence along with the ongoing improvement in employment may encourage the RBNZ to retain a very hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the NZD/USD may recoup the losses from earlier this month should Governor Graeme Wheeler show a greater willingness to deliver another rate hike later this year.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Nevertheless, the RBNZ may strike a more balanced tone for the region amid the slowdown in private sector consumption along with the limited pickup in price growth, and the New Zealand dollar may continue to press fresh monthly lows should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric drag on interest rate expectations.

Read More:

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

AUD/NZD continues higher from key cycle turn window

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish NZD Trade: RBNZ Hikes to 3.50% & Retains Hawkish Forward-Guidance

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the statement to consider a long New Zealand dollar trade
  • If market reaction favors buying kiwi, go long NZD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bearish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Adopts Neutral Tone & Talks Down Rate Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short NZD/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish New Zealand dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will look for fresh highs should the NZD/USD carve a higher-low in July
  • Interim Resistance: 0.8841 (2011 High) to 0.8850 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.8600 (23.6% retracement) to 0.8620 (50.0% retracement)

Impact that the RBNZ rate decision has had on NZD during the last meeting

June 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision

NZD/USD Chart

The headline reading for New Zealand inflation unexpectedly slowed during the first three-months of 2014, with the CPI figure slipping to an annualized 1.5% from 1.6% in the fourth quarter. The New Zealand dollar struggled to hold its ground following the dismal print, with the NZD/USD moving back below the 0.8600 handle, but the higher-yielding currency pared the losses during the North American trade to close at 0.8622.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

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AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

Talking Points

  • AUDNZD rally vulnerable at critical resistance range
  • Weekly / Monthly opening ranges remain constructive
  • Major event risk on tap tonight from New Zealand

AUDNZD Daily Chart

AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD testing key resistance range 1.0875/82
  • Breach targets topside resistance objectives at 1.0906, 1.0945, 1.1007 &1.1027/35
  • Interim support 1.0826, 1.0767- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI trigger/50 breach- constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Trade Balance data tonight

AUDNZD 30min Chart

AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

Notes: The AUDNZD continues to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation off the July lows and a break of the weekly & monthly opening range highs yesterday keeps the broader focus on the pair weighted to the topside while above this week’s low at 1.0767. That said, building RSI divergence into key resistance at 1.0875/82 leaves the trade vulnerable for a near-term pullback ahead of event risk later tonight.

Bottom line: we’ll favor buying pullbacks in the pair with a breach/close above 1.09 targeting subsequent resistance objectives. A break below 1.0767 invalidates this particular setup with such a scenario risking a deeper correction back towards the January 2014 trendline support.

Caution is warranted heading into the interest rate decision tonight with the event likely to fuel added volatility in kiwi crosses. Look for a reaction to either validate a breach above key resistance or possibly trigger a near-term correction lower to offer more favorable long entries heading into the start of August trade.Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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BoE Sings Dovish Tune – How Threatened are GBP Longs?

Talking Points:

- GBPUSD testing TL from July 2013 low, could fall to 1.6920.

- EURGBP, GBPCHF nearing former pivotal thresholds.

- Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD.

The Bank of England is clearly shifting its bias, but it’s also evident it’s a long, drawn out process. The path to tightening monetary policy began at last August’s Quarterly Inflation Report, and the path was recently illuminated once more when BoE Governor Carney said that interest rates “could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”

One observation that the BoE made in its July meeting minutes was that market participants increased bets that an interest rate hike would be coming in Q1’15; at the June meeting, the BoE had observed that market participants were pricing in a hike in Q2’15. Rate expectations are up, and the British Pound has surely benefited.

That being said, the BoE made sure to draw the line right there in terms of noting rising rate expectations; effort was made to highlight the weaker aspects of the economy. Citing weak real wage growth (which we’ve discussed recently here), the BoE warned that “premature tightening in monetary policy might leave the economy vulnerable to shocks, with the effectiveness of any further stimulus uncertain.”

In the video above, we review these fundamental points as well as look at the technical aspects of several GBP-crosses: EURGBP, GBPCAD, GBPCHF, and GBPUSD. While we are not looking to sell the British Pound – it is explicitly a long-only trade from our swing perspective – it is cautioned that a number of significant uptrends in these pairs are currently being threatened.

Read more: Managing USD Expectations with EUR/USD, USD/CAD (but not USD/JPY)

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Hangs Hopes On Bullish Inventories Report As Supply Disruption Fears Ease
  • Gold and Silver Could Remain Elevated If USD Weakness Counteracts Fading Geopolitical Concerns
  • Copper Could Resume Its Climb If Upcoming Chinese Economic Data Prints Above Expectations

Crude oil may be set for a turbulent session with the possibility that fading supply disruption fears could be offset by a bullish US inventories report. Similarly, gold faces conflicting cues as ebbing safe-haven demand for the precious metal may be counteracted by a weaker US Dollar. Finally, copper traders will be given some guidance by upcoming Chinese PMI data which could bolster demand for the base metal on an upside surprise.

US Supply Story At A Potential Turning Point

US Inventories data set to cross the wires in the coming hours could help add some color to a shifting supply and demand story for crude oil in the US. Near-record levels for total crude stockpiles are slowly being absorbed by a pickup in refinery utilization according to recent reports from the DOE. This puts crude oil at a turning point as a robust US economic recovery stands to bolster demand for the growth-sensitive commodity.

The upcoming Weekly Petroleum Status Report is tipped to reveal the fourth straight weekly decline for total inventories, suggesting demand is set to outstrip new supply once again. Another bullish set of inventories figures could help offset some of the pressure facing crude on the back of easing Russian supply concerns.

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Times In GMT, Source: Economic Calendar

Meanwhile an above-average build in natural gas storage data over the past several weeks has contributed to sustained declines for the energy commodity. Another higher-than-anticipated print from the EIA’s Weekly Report on Thursday could put further pressure on prices, which have plunged by over 20 percent since their June highs.

Gold Faces Conflicting Cues As Dollar Drops

The latest flare-up in geopolitical tensions have failed to leave a lasting impact on market sentiment, leaving the precious metals vulnerable to ebbing safe-haven demand. However, gold and silver could remain elevated if their pricing currency, the US Dollar continues its struggle. The June US inflation reading released this week does little to alter Fed policy expectations, which may leave the US Dollar bulls lacking drive. Further, a light US docket over the session offers few potential catalysts to spark renewed faith in the reserve currency.

China Data To Offer Copper Cues

A better-than-anticipated reading from the upcoming China June HSBC Flash PMI figures could help alleviate concerns over a slowdown in economic growth in the Asian giant, which in turn could prop up copper prices. A turnaround in recent data from the world’s largest consumer of the base metal has helped the commodity recover some ground over the past several months.

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The risk remains to the downside for crude following a failure to push back above the 23.6% Fib Level at 103.76. The short-term downtrend as signaled by the 20 SMA is intact, which puts the immediate focus on the 101.36 mark. A break below the 38.2% Fib would pave the way for a retest of the 98.90 mark.

Crude Oil: Awaiting Break Below Fib Level

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The push back above the 38.2% Fib Level at 1,305 for gold has left some conflicting signals for the precious metal. The upside break and Harami pattern suggests the potential for further strength. However, with resistance nearby at 1,330 and signs of a downtrend emerging (20 SMA), waiting for a clearer technical picture is preferred before adopting new positions.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bullish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Testing Key Support Near 1,305

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The technical picture has not changed significantly for silver over the most recent session. The failure to hold above the critical 21.10 mark suggests the bears are unprepared to relinquish their grip on prices at this stage. A break back below 20.83 (23.6% Fib) would be required to shift the immediate risk to the downside.

Silver: Searching For Direction Above 20.83

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has failed to breach the 3.23 level of resistance in recent trading, which casts doubt over the potential for a sustained recovery. Given the emergence of a short-term downtrend a re-test of the nearby ceiling, or break below 3.19 would be seen as a new opportunity for short positions.

Copper: Looking For Short Entries As Downtrend Emerges

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Playing palladium’s uptrend remains preferred with the prospect of a run on the psychologically-significant 900 handle over the near-term still looking likely. A retest of 861 or push back above former support-turned resistance at 875 would offer a fresh buying opportunity.

Palladium: Looking For Longs With Uptrend Intact

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

While platinum has maintained a slight upward trajectory over recent months, more recent price action has been relatively rough, which leaves a mixed technical bias for the commodity.

Platinum: Awaiting Guidance As Recent Volatility Yields Mixed Signals

Crude Oil At A Crossroads, Gold Could Remain Elevated As USD Drops

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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British Pound at Risk with July BOE Meeting Minutes in the Spotlight

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Vulnerable with July BOE Meeting Minutes in the Spotlight
  • Australian Dollar Soars as 2Q CPI Data Inspires RBA Rate Hike Outlook
  • See Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Minutes from July’s Bank of England meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. Monetary policy expectations remain firmly in control of price action. Indeed, the correlation between GBPUSD and the 2-year Gilt yield is now at 0.70, the highest in nearly three years (on 20-day percent change studies).

Commentary from Governor Mark Carney has offered mixed in recent weeks. The central bank chief said the markets were under-pricing the possibility of an interest rate hike this year, sending the British Pound sharply higher, only to walk back the comment days later. That has left Sterling adrift and waiting for direction cues.

With that in mind, traders will be keen to size up the voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC committee to see if unanimity in favor of the status quo was broken at July’s sit-down. While any votes in favor of a rate hike will have been in the minority, their emergence alone is likely to be interpreted as a de-facto hawkish posture shift and send the UK unit higher. Another 9-0 tally to keep things unchanged may yield the opposite result.

On balance, the case for a near-term tightening seems flimsy. UK economic news-flow has been deteriorating relative to expectations since late March. Meanwhile, June’s bounce in the baseline inflation rate (1.9 percent versus a 4.5-year low of 1.5 percent in May) masks a slide in price growth bets. Indeed, the 5-year “breakeven rate” – a measure of investors’ priced-in inflation outlook – has trended downward since April and now sits just above a four-month low. For the Pound, that seems to tilt surprise risk to the downside.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The rally followed the release of marginally upbeat second-quarter CPI figures. While the headline year-on-year inflation rate printed in line with expectations at 3 percent, the seasonally adjusted Trimmed Mean measure of “underlying” price growth trends topped forecasts to hit a four-year high of 2.9 percent. AUDUSD advanced alongside Australia’s 2-year bond yield, hinting the CPI data set inspired a hawkish shift in investors’ RBA policy outlook.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak